The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps.

The potential of using the Ecosystem Approach in the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive.

The Ecosystem Approach provides a framework for looking at whole ecosystems in decision making to ensure that society can maintain a healthy and resilient natural environment now and for future generations. Although not explicitly mentioned in the Water Framework Directive, the Ecosystem Approach appears to be a promising concept to help its implementation, on the basis that there is a connection between the aims and objectives of the Directive (including good ecological status) and the provision of ecosystem services. In this paper, methodological linkages between the Ecosystem Approach and the Water Framework Directive have been reviewed and a framework is proposed that links its implementation to the Ecosystem Approach taking into consideration all ecosystem services and water management objectives. Individual River Basin Management Plan objectives are qualitatively assessed as to how strong their link is with individual ecosystem services. The benefits of using this approach to provide a preliminary assessment of how it could support future implementation of the Directive have been identified and discussed. Findings also demonstrate its potential to encourage more systematic and systemic thinking as it can provide a consistent framework for identifying shared aims and evaluating alternative water management scenarios and options in decision making. Allowing for a broad consideration of the benefits, costs and tradeoffs that occur in each case, this approach can further improve the economic case for certain measures, and can also help restore the shift in focus from strict legislative compliance towards a more holistic implementation that can deliver the wider aims and intentions of the Directive.

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

An assessment of the feasibility of using image analysis in the oyster embryo-larval development test.

In this study the feasibility of using the latest image capture, processing, and analysis techniques in the oyster embryo-larval development (OEL) test was assessed. This initially involved determining whether the OEL test could be carried out in multiwell plates (which would assist in the application of the image analysis technique), based on data from tests with the reference toxicant zinc and industrial effluents. The study then ascertained which of the 31 image analysis parameters of the Image Pro Plus software used was most appropriate for differentiating between the D larvae and non-D larvae at the end of the test procedure in a manner similar to that of visual observations. On the basis of the zinc reference toxicant and effluent test data derived in this study, the OEL test can be effectively carried out in 24 chamber multiwell plates, which provides the opportunity to count objects with image analysis software. The use of the image analysis parameters area and size (length) in combination resulted in mean control abnormalities and EC50 values in zinc reference toxicant tests which were not significantly different statistically from corresponding values derived using visual observations. Discrimination using the area and length parameters may be improved by the inclusion of other parameters in a suite of measurements which would reduce interference from extraneous material or lighting artefacts. Furthermore, the use of multiwell plates and image analysis can eliminate the variability associated with sub-sampling and inter-operator differences in the counts of D larvae and non-D larvae which is evident with the current visual observation method.